One cohort, end-to-end
ROASMath follows a single paid-traffic cohort from ad impression through the third follow-up email. Buyers exit the sequence, so the same person is never counted twice.
- Ad budget → clicks (÷ CPC) → impressions (÷ CTR).
- Clicks → leads (opt-in rate) — Lead Funnel only.
- Immediate one-time offer, with optional order bump.
- Email 1: recipients → opens → clicks → purchases.
- Email 2 to remaining non-buyers, same denominators.
- Email 3 to the last remaining non-buyers.
Email denominators
Each email stage uses the previous stage: opens are % of recipients, clicks are % of openers, and purchases are % of clickers. Open rate now drives revenue — a higher open rate produces more clicks and more buyers.
Definitions
- CTR (click-through rate)
- Clicks divided by impressions. The share of people who saw the ad and clicked.
- CPC (cost per click)
- Ad spend divided by clicks. What you pay each time someone clicks the ad.
- CPM (cost per mille)
- Ad spend divided by impressions, times 1,000. What you pay per thousand impressions.
- CPL (cost per lead)
- Ad spend divided by leads. What each opt-in costs (Lead Funnel only).
- CPA (cost per acquisition)
- Ad spend divided by total buyers across immediate and email stages.
- AOV (average order value)
- Total revenue divided by total buyers, including bump revenue.
- ROAS
- Total revenue divided by ad spend. 1.00× means revenue equals ad spend before non-ad costs.
- Open rate (email)
- Percent of email recipients who open. Opens then drive clicks and purchases downstream.
- Click rate (email)
- Percent of email OPENERS who click. Not percent of recipients.
- Post-click purchase rate
- Percent of email CLICKERS who purchase.
- Revenue per click
- Total revenue divided by clicks — the average revenue each click produces.
- Maximum break-even CPC (before non-ad costs)
- The highest CPC at which forecast revenue still covers ad spend. Equals revenue per click under this fixed-cohort model.
- Webinar registration rate
- Share of ad clicks that register for the webinar (clicks → registrations).
- Show-up rate
- Share of registrants who attend the live or replay webinar.
- Stick-to-CTA rate
- Share of attendees still present when the offer or call CTA is made.
- CTA click rate (Direct Purchase)
- Share of viewers reaching the CTA who click through to checkout.
- Purchase rate (Direct Purchase)
- Share of CTA clickers who complete the offer purchase.
- Application rate (Call path)
- Share of viewers reaching the CTA who submit an application.
- Call-booking rate
- Share of applications that schedule a call.
- Call show-up rate
- Share of scheduled calls attended live.
- Close rate
- Share of call attendees who become closed buyers at the offer price.
- Cost per booked call
- Ad spend divided by total scheduled calls (immediate + email-attributed).
- Post-click application rate (email)
- On the call path, share of email clickers who submit an application. Applications then flow through booking, call show, and close.
What V1 does not model
- Taxes, refunds, COGS, fulfillment cost, merchant fees.
- Recurring subscriptions, LTV, cash-flow timing.
- Landing-page load loss and any branching beyond three follow-ups.
- Live ad-platform or email-service integrations.